Methodology

For those that have been following along my conclusions came by deleting the rhetoric. Setting aside who wants what and what the`re saying to get it. I`ve put everything in the context of the largest and now the most influential force on the planet, globalism.

I`ve left the good and bad that generates the rhetoric by focusing on where will it go now . I`m very concerned that we are entering into a period where all the gains made since the end of the cold war could crumble to dust in a matter of a few months. Sry, that`s reality without the sugar coating.
First I`ll deal with not doing anything or reversing globalism totally.

There is a large number of people advocating trade barriers, import duties and other restrictions that would isolate various interests, kind of like the monopolies of 50 years ago. That system advanced the world a great deal of with seemingly unlimited supply of cheap commodities. With dwindling raw resources and oil on life support even if we wanted to go back, we can`t.
Doing nothing is the perfect template for a fight to the death over the last oil or raw resources and it will be the death of the planet. Complete, utter and total destruction. My thumbs down on doing nothing.

To date the only program that`s on the table for doing something is creating a green economy. I really like the concept and have spent a great deal of time researching photovoltaics, geo-therm and hydrogen cells. Certainly an addition to the global economy of this size would provide considerable short term stability. The concept revolves around one basic factor, consumers. This is also where the biggest problem lays. In order to create a green global economy the consumers must buy the product, spend extra which they would if they were not broke. Even by massive tax cuts and incentives to move consumers green it wouldn`t be enough, probably not even enough to keep consumers buying when tax cuts will create a spike in inflation.
Really, who can go green when finances are tight. Pay a little more to keep that old dishwasher, sure, it works and I can`t afford a new one.

That`s why I`m trying to put a global transportation system on the table. My calculations conclude that most of the investment would be private and users, the commuters, could take their vehicle to work in 25% of the time it takes now with costs at par with todays commuters costs and no danger of rapid change as we always experience with oil. Consumers not spending more, just differently leaving consumers with the funds to replace that old dishwasher, that`s feasible and long term.
Did I mention a massive reduction in pollution?

Hope that simplified my blog for everyone.

We are behind schedule

I thought I`d share some musings about global economic conditions and the Cdn. connection.

It is a historic day. Not only did oil hit another all time high of $96/barrel but the Cdn dollar also recorded a record at $1.07 against the US dollar. I still don`t believe the global economy can function over $85, for one reason, consumer debt. Regardless of predatory sales in subprime mortgage that started the current global credit crunch the vast majority of consumers are over mortgaged, over spent with 0 savings. Add the run up in commodity prices over the last 5 years guaranteeing inflation and the wallets will stay closed.
The US could actually be cushioned by their falling dollar, imports get more expensive while exporters gain an advantage. Industry could plug along evening up the chances of a mild recession over a deep one. There is a caveat.
The old adage that when the US gets a cold we get the flu has already happened. Central Canada has been shedding jobs (flu) since 2002 with huge pressure on Ottawa to supply the chicken soup.
Here`s where it gets interesting, Canada has second in oil reserves to Saudi Arabia. As long as the global economy chugs along with enough credit and consumption Cdn commodities will continue to supply massive revenue to government. The windfall revenue created almost all the jobs created as reported in the last two statscan reports show they were public sector, not private. The Ontario Liberals campaigned on 30,000 added jobs just before the last election, they were all governmentr hires.

The current tug of war between the factions calling for subsidies, tax cuts and other assorted methods is much the current topic of discussion.
The US is the primary market of 80% of our exports so with the higher dollar what measure could possibly turn this sector around. During the tech boom Us companies reinvested while Cdn companies have done little retooling for decades. The sector is out dated, out moded and out preformed at all levels.
With oil at $96 a barrel the global economy just might make survival guidelines appropriate for the government printers.
How bad could it get, lets look ahead. Most best case has oil running out in 50 years, worse case predicts 20 years. At the rate we`re going I doubt if we`ll have consumer debt under control before oil shortages create more havoc than $100+ oil.

I don`t think my view could be considered negative except by the most overly optimistic. Even if the different sides and their recipe for chicken soup created some relief, even worse coming soon is a very real possibility.

Adding the following article on climate change to economic issues makes me stress again, it`s imperative that Ottawa invest $50m to kick start a global university design competition for a maglev indavidual vehicle transportation system.